Methodology
Every job gets a Training Priority score from 0.5 to 10. A higher score means more of the job’s everyday work is the kind AI tools can help with, so people in that job have more to gain from learning to use them.
The score comes from the U.S. Department of Labor’s O*NET database, which describes what 894 occupations involve. A registered nurse gets the same score at every organization.
AI tools help with writing, finding information and making sense of it. Jobs where much of the work needs hands and presence score lower.
Use it to decide where AI training should start. It does not rate any person, and it does not predict job losses.
The weakest link is matching your job titles to the right occupation, so read results by department or job family rather than one role at a time.
In two stages. The first happens once for every occupation. The second happens each time you upload a roster. No AI model runs when a score is produced, and the same inputs always give the same score.
Current version: July 2026. Rebuilt only when the method changes.
O*NET rates 41 kinds of work activity for each occupation: how important each one is to the job, and at what level it is done.
Each activity gets a value from 0 to 1 for how much of it AI can help with today. It uses the one AI skill that fits the activity best, such as drafting text or pulling information together, and a reviewed rating of how good AI is at that skill.
Activities that matter more to the job count for more. The result is the share of the job’s work that AI can help with. For every occupation it falls between 27% and 41%.
The share is cut by how many of the job’s O*NET abilities are physical or hands-on. The cut is squared, so very physical jobs are held back more. This step separates jobs more than any other.
A fixed rule stretches the results so the lowest 1% of occupations sit near 0.5 and the highest 1% near 9.5. The order does not change, and no job scores zero.
Your file changes which occupations are counted and how many people are in each.
Titles are cleaned and compared with O*NET’s occupation titles and alternate titles. Matches under 90% confidence are flagged for review. For a flagged title, an optional AI assistant suggests three likely occupations and a person picks one. The assistant never sets a score.
Each role’s score is weighted by its headcount to give department and organization figures, and to place people in three training groups: 7 and above, 4 to 6.9, and under 4.
The score is deterministic: the same inputs always give the same score, and the whole calculation is arithmetic. No AI model runs when a score is produced. The score combines what an occupation does, from O*NET, with reviewed ratings of how good AI is at each skill today, based on public tests and published evidence.
The score measures the share of an occupation’s weighted work that AI can help with. It is not a rank, and it is not a claim about what AI can do in general. Two occupations with the same score have a similar share of work AI can help with; they do not necessarily do similar work. Everywhere the product explains a score, it names the O*NET work activities behind it, because that is what the score is built from. Method version: TPS v2.2, July 2026.
The activities that weigh most: keeping knowledge current, caring for patients, noticing what is happening, making decisions, planning work, and documenting.
About half of documenting and of noticing what is happening. About a quarter of hands-on care. Weighted over all 41 activities: 35%.
Weighted by importance, 29% of the abilities nurses need are physical or hands-on. Squared, that keeps 50% of the desk share (0.71 × 0.71).
35.3 × 0.50 ÷ 10 = 1.78, which the fixed rule places at 3.1 on the 0.5 to 10 scale.
Medical secretaries have almost the same desk share as nurses (37% against 35%) but far less physical work (11% against 29%), and score 6.8. Across all occupations the desk share ranges only from 27% to 41%, so how physical a job is moves its score more than anything else.
Swapping in older or different ratings of how good AI is at each skill barely changes the order of occupations. Those ratings matter most for deciding what to teach.
Counting each scored job by how many people hold it, the average US worker scores 4.2. Half of all workers (50%) are in jobs scoring under 3.5, mostly hands-on work. About a third (31%) score 6.5 or higher, mostly office and professional work.
Each industry’s average covers every job in it, office staff included. The 20 industry sectors range from 1.5 (agriculture, forestry, fishing) to 7.4 (finance and insurance). The dashed line marks all US workers.
| Industry | Workers | Average score | Share scoring 7 or above |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accommodation and Food Services | 14,276,590 | 2.5 | 1% |
| Accommodation | 2,007,720 | 3.0 | 4% |
| Food Services and Drinking Places | 12,268,870 | 2.4 | 1% |
| Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services | 9,114,350 | 3.6 | 14% |
| Administrative and Support Services | 8,599,170 | 3.6 | 14% |
| Waste Management and Remediation Services | 515,180 | 2.7 | 6% |
| Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting | 413,350 | 1.5 | 3% |
| Forestry and Logging | 41,620 | 2.1 | 4% |
| Support Activities for Agriculture and Forestry | 371,730 | 1.5 | 2% |
| Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation | 2,765,320 | 3.5 | 7% |
| Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institutions | 181,800 | 4.8 | 14% |
| Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries | 603,790 | 4.4 | 16% |
| Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries | 1,979,740 | 3.1 | 4% |
| Construction | 8,298,380 | 2.8 | 7% |
| Construction of Buildings | 1,861,040 | 3.5 | 12% |
| Specialty Trade Contractors | 5,243,000 | 2.6 | 6% |
| Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction | 1,194,340 | 2.6 | 7% |
| Educational Services | 13,852,050 | 6.0 | 36% |
| Educational Services | 13,852,050 | 6.0 | 36% |
| Finance and Insurance | 6,281,650 | 7.4 | 63% |
| Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities | 1,099,930 | 8.0 | 74% |
| Monetary Authorities-Central Bank | 20,490 | 7.5 | 71% |
| Funds, Trusts, and Other Financial Vehicles | 33,650 | 7.4 | 61% |
| Insurance Carriers and Related Activities | 2,617,090 | 7.4 | 61% |
| Credit Intermediation and Related Activities | 2,510,490 | 7.3 | 62% |
| Federal, State, and Local Government, excluding State and Local Government Schools and Hospitals and the U.S. Postal Service (OEWS Designation) | 10,242,890 | 4.8 | 24% |
| Federal, State, and Local Government, excluding State and Local Government Schools and Hospitals and the U.S. Postal Service (OEWS Designation) | 10,242,890 | 4.8 | 24% |
| Health Care and Social Assistance | 24,031,380 | 4.1 | 9% |
| Ambulatory Health Care Services | 8,947,200 | 4.6 | 11% |
| Hospitals | 6,712,760 | 4.0 | 11% |
| Social Assistance | 4,976,250 | 3.9 | 6% |
| Nursing and Residential Care Facilities | 3,395,180 | 3.2 | 5% |
| Information | 2,879,620 | 6.5 | 49% |
| Publishing Industries | 910,660 | 7.3 | 67% |
| Computing Infrastructure Providers, Data Processing, Web Hosting, and Related Services | 485,550 | 7.3 | 62% |
| Web Search Portals, Libraries, Archives, and Other Information Services | 174,790 | 7.3 | 66% |
| Broadcasting and Content Providers | 343,200 | 6.7 | 44% |
| Telecommunications | 591,190 | 5.1 | 28% |
| Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries | 374,240 | 4.9 | 16% |
| Management of Companies and Enterprises | 2,828,130 | 6.8 | 54% |
| Management of Companies and Enterprises | 2,828,130 | 6.8 | 54% |
| Manufacturing | 12,654,310 | 3.3 | 12% |
| Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing | 1,002,320 | 5.2 | 35% |
| Chemical Manufacturing | 889,150 | 3.9 | 14% |
| Miscellaneous Manufacturing | 616,780 | 3.9 | 13% |
| Machinery Manufacturing | 1,092,170 | 3.7 | 17% |
| Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing | 425,210 | 3.7 | 15% |
| Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing | 112,470 | 3.5 | 12% |
| Printing and Related Support Activities | 355,560 | 3.5 | 8% |
| Transportation Equipment Manufacturing | 1,753,760 | 3.5 | 16% |
| Apparel Manufacturing | 79,960 | 3.0 | 7% |
| Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing | 1,436,510 | 3.0 | 8% |
| Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing | 329,940 | 2.9 | 6% |
| Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing | 339,750 | 2.7 | 7% |
| Paper Manufacturing | 353,210 | 2.7 | 6% |
| Textile Product Mills | 94,410 | 2.7 | 5% |
| Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing | 705,590 | 2.7 | 7% |
| Primary Metal Manufacturing | 364,190 | 2.6 | 7% |
| Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing | 414,630 | 2.6 | 5% |
| Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing | 23,760 | 2.5 | 4% |
| Food Manufacturing | 1,778,490 | 2.5 | 4% |
| Textile Mills | 79,900 | 2.4 | 5% |
| Wood Product Manufacturing | 406,580 | 2.3 | 4% |
| Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction | 570,220 | 3.0 | 10% |
| Oil and Gas Extraction | 113,950 | 4.6 | 26% |
| Support Activities for Mining | 268,510 | 2.7 | 7% |
| Mining (except Oil and Gas) | 187,760 | 2.5 | 5% |
| Other Services (except Public Administration) | 4,484,430 | 3.9 | 13% |
| Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations | 1,429,400 | 5.7 | 33% |
| Personal and Laundry Services | 1,585,390 | 3.3 | 3% |
| Repair and Maintenance | 1,469,640 | 2.9 | 6% |
| Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services | 10,800,470 | 7.0 | 58% |
| Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services | 10,800,470 | 7.0 | 58% |
| Real Estate and Rental and Leasing | 2,427,950 | 4.8 | 25% |
| Lessors of Nonfinancial Intangible Assets (except Copyrighted Works) | 21,250 | 7.4 | 57% |
| Real Estate | 1,837,320 | 5.2 | 30% |
| Rental and Leasing Services | 569,390 | 3.4 | 8% |
| Retail Trade | 15,503,410 | 3.4 | 4% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics, and Appliance Retailers | 764,510 | 4.1 | 10% |
| Health and Personal Care Retailers | 1,076,240 | 4.1 | 5% |
| Clothing, Clothing Accessories, Shoe, and Jewelry Retailers | 1,157,300 | 3.9 | 3% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, Book, and Miscellaneous Retailers | 1,504,440 | 3.8 | 5% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 2,043,570 | 3.5 | 8% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers | 1,392,800 | 3.4 | 3% |
| Gasoline Stations and Fuel Dealers | 1,042,980 | 3.1 | 1% |
| General Merchandise Retailers | 3,275,200 | 3.1 | 2% |
| Food and Beverage Retailers | 3,246,380 | 2.8 | 1% |
| Transportation and Warehousing | 7,448,640 | 2.6 | 5% |
| Support Activities for Transportation | 812,950 | 3.8 | 10% |
| Pipeline Transportation | 56,210 | 3.7 | 14% |
| Water Transportation | 69,600 | 3.7 | 12% |
| Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation | 30,850 | 3.6 | 4% |
| Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation | 532,510 | 3.4 | 6% |
| Air Transportation | 563,220 | 3.3 | 4% |
| Rail Transportation | 190,930 | 2.8 | 6% |
| Truck Transportation | 1,499,660 | 2.5 | 4% |
| Warehousing and Storage | 1,963,680 | 2.3 | 4% |
| Postal Service (Federal Government) | 618,900 | 1.9 | 2% |
| Couriers and Messengers | 1,110,140 | 1.9 | 2% |
| Utilities | 598,000 | 4.4 | 21% |
| Utilities | 598,000 | 4.4 | 21% |
| Wholesale Trade | 6,024,600 | 4.3 | 20% |
| Wholesale Trade Agents and Brokers | 443,730 | 5.3 | 26% |
| Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods | 3,392,640 | 4.5 | 21% |
| Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods | 2,188,230 | 4.0 | 16% |
From the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025. BLS surveys employers and publishes how many people work in each occupation, for the whole country (155.5 million workers) and for each industry. Talvio does not estimate which jobs an industry has; it uses these published counts. An industry’s average is each occupation’s score weighted by how many people in that industry hold it: 600 nurses at 3.1 and 400 billing clerks at 7.2 average 4.7.
Each BLS occupation takes the score of the matching O*NET occupation. Where O*NET splits a BLS occupation into specialties, the general occupation’s score is used: registered nurses count at 3.1, not at the average of the nurse specialties. Where BLS merges several O*NET occupations into one, it takes their simple average.
96% of US workers hold a scored occupation. The largest groups without a score: Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel (1,256,010); Project Management Specialists (1,066,670); Financial and Investment Analysts (361,980); Production Workers, All Other (251,700); Medical Records Specialists (194,720); Office and Administrative Support Workers, All Other (192,260); Emergency Medical Technicians (180,510); Postsecondary Teachers, All Other (149,840). BLS also withholds some counts in small industries to protect employers’ privacy; those workers drop out of that industry’s average. The survey does not cover the self-employed or farms, so the agriculture average reflects forestry, logging and farm support services, not farmworkers. The counts are jobs, not people: someone with two jobs counts twice.
How these averages compare with published measures is under Checks against outside research.
Each number is rank agreement: 1 means the two put occupations in the same order, 0 means no relation. No published measure tests exactly what this score claims, so these are the closest comparisons.
Agrees closely with a study in which experts rated where AI cuts the time a task takes in half.
Source: Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin and Rock, Science, 2024Agrees moderately with where people use Claude at work. Real use agrees with the score at least as well as it agrees with the expert ratings (0.458 against 0.363).
Source: Anthropic Economic Index, March 2026 report · dataAgrees very closely with the Felten AI exposure index. That index is built from the same O*NET data, so this checks consistency and adds no independent evidence.
Source: Felten, Raj and Seamans, Strategic Management Journal, 2021 · dataBarely agrees with OpenAI’s GDPval, which tests how well AI completes whole professional tasks. That measures a different thing: how well AI does the work, not how much of a job it can help with.
Source: OpenAI, GDPval, 2025The industry averages under “How US jobs compare” were also built from three published measures, using the same BLS worker counts. Talvio puts industries in nearly the same order as the expert ratings and the Felten index, and in a similar order to Microsoft’s measure of Copilot use.
| Industries compared | Expert ratings (Eloundou et al.) | Felten index, language-model version | Copilot use (Microsoft) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sectors (20) | 0.94 | 0.95 | 0.77 |
| Industries (3-digit) (85) | 0.92 | 0.94 | 0.78 |
| Industries (4-digit) (246) | 0.93 | 0.95 | 0.78 |
Averages agree more closely than single occupations do, because each one covers thousands of workers. Most of the agreement comes from a pattern every measure shares: industries with more office and desk work score higher. For single occupations, agreement with Microsoft’s measure is 0.71 (751 occupations). The Felten index is built from the same O*NET data, so its agreement checks consistency more than it confirms. Microsoft’s measure comes from how people use Copilot, which trails what AI could do in some industries.
Sources: Eloundou et al., Science, 2024 · Felten, Raj and Seamans, 2023 · Tomlinson et al., 2025
Thirteen versions of the method were tried. Eleven moved the typical occupation fewer than 20 places out of 894, the bar set before the test. The two that failed both change which abilities count as physical, and both made agreement with the expert ratings worse.
The score measures how much of an occupation's work AI can help with today. The ranking agrees closely with expert ratings of where AI helps (Eloundou et al. beta, rank agreement rho=0.858, n=894 occupations) and with records of where people really use AI (Anthropic Economic Index, rho=0.458, n=479 occupations, March 2026 release). The agreement with real use is moderate and covers only the occupations that have usage records; even so, real use agrees with the score at least as well as it agrees with the expert ratings (rho=0.458 vs 0.363 on the same occupations). The claim is that the score lines up with where AI is used, not that it predicts use closely.
The expert ratings are Eloundou et al. beta, the share of an occupation’s tasks where AI cuts the time in half: every scored occupation, 95% confidence interval [0.839, 0.873]. The usage records are the Anthropic Economic Index release of March 2026.
The Anthropic Economic Index does not come from O*NET: it records where people really use AI, and it agrees with the score at least as well as it agrees with the expert ratings (rho=0.458 vs 0.363 on the same occupations). That answers the worry that the score only agrees with things built from the same data.
The score barely agrees with GDPval because the two measure different things: the score agrees closely with expert ratings of where AI helps (rho=0.858, n=894) and moderately with real use (rho=0.458, n=479), while GDPval measures how well AI does finished professional work. That is the expected pattern for a measure of where AI can help.
The claim is deliberately narrow: on the occupations with usage records, the score lines up with real AI use at least as well as the expert ratings do (score vs use rho=0.458; expert ratings vs use rho=0.363). It does not claim to predict AI use in any particular occupation or organization.
For readers who want the full comparisons, the limits, the references, and the detail behind the checks.
Talvio also shows how much of each job is physical. It is measured separately and never added to the Training Priority score.
From O*NET data on how much of the time a job is spent sitting, and how often it is spent in a vehicle.
Every O*NET task statement for the job is labeled as one of eight kinds of physical work, such as hands-on care of people or precise handwork, or as not physical.
Each kind is marked today, testing, or not yet. Machines that do this work are still rare in most workplaces, and a single physical score did no better than the plain share of physical work in testing, so Talvio shows the share and the kinds, not a score.
The share of time not seated agrees with the BLS Occupational Requirements Survey at 0.93 across 437 occupations, and with an expert’s blind forecast at 0.92 across 33 occupations.
The Training Priority score describes the desk side of a job: the work AI tools can help a trained person with. Most workforces also hold a lot of work done on your feet, with your hands, or behind a wheel. The physical work layer shows how much of each role that is, and what kinds of physical work it holds, beside the Training Priority score and separate from it. Two rules hold everywhere it appears. The physical numbers are never added to, averaged with, or ranked against the Training Priority score. And no single physical score is shown, because the evidence supports the breakdown, not one number.
Every number comes from public O*NET 30.3 records for the matched occupation, and the whole calculation is arithmetic. No AI model runs when a number is produced. Physical work method: September 2026.
Below a headline of 20 the breakdown is replaced by “Little physical work in this job.” An occupation with no physical task in its O*NET task list (180 of 894) shows the bar without a breakdown. O*NET task lists rarely mention walking or standing, so that time counts in the overall figure and does not appear as a kind of physical work.
| Kind of physical work | Stage today |
|---|---|
| hands-on work with people | Not yet |
| repair and troubleshooting | Not yet |
| routine upkeep and cleaning | Testing |
| running fixed machines | Today |
| lifting, carrying, and moving objects | Testing |
| moving around on foot | Testing |
| precise handwork | Testing |
| driving and operating equipment | Testing |
Two checks were written down before any number was computed and then run once.
One rule in the blind test was never exercised: every role the expert called mostly hands-on care should show at least half its physical tasks as “not yet.” No such role came up in the random draw, so that rule is recorded as untested. On the roles used while choosing the method, nursing assistants show 77% hands-on work with people, home health aides 84%, and registered nurses 78%.
A 0.5 to 10 physical score was built and tested against two outside references. It agreed with the things it should agree with, differed from the things it should differ from, and did not simply repeat its own inputs. It still failed the test we had set in advance: it was no better than a plain share of physical work at predicting either reference (it was worse by 0.087 and 0.090), and versions built with random weights did just as well. Two blind reviews of the method agreed the extra structure added little. The score stays in the record, with this written down, and appears nowhere in the product.
The formulas are under “Show the math” above. These are the rest of the detail. Method version TPS v2.2, July 2026. Physical work method, September 2026.
These reviewed scores shape what to teach. They answer the question “which AI skills matter for this work?” The Training Priority ranking itself is built from the work activities, not from these scores.
| AI skill | How good AI is at it today | Measured by |
|---|---|---|
| Written content generation and editing | 7.5/10 | HELM Capabilities |
| Information synthesis and research | 6.0/10 | Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index |
| Structured data analysis and quantitative reasoning | 5.5/10 | Artificial Analysis Intelligence Benchmarking |
| Coding and software engineering | 6.5/10 | SWE-bench |
| Conversational support and customer interaction | 6.5/10 | Arena Text Leaderboard |
| Translation and cross-language work | 7.0/10 | Artificial Analysis Multilingual Index |
| Speech and audio processing | 6.5/10 | Artificial Analysis Speech to Text Leaderboard |
| Image and document understanding | 7.5/10 | MMMU-Pro |
| Image, video, and design generation | 7.0/10 | Artificial Analysis Image Model Leaderboard |
| Planning, scheduling, and structured decision support | 5.0/10 | GDPval |
| Tool use and autonomous agents | 4.0/10 | METR Time Horizons |
| Domain-specialist reasoning | 6.5/10 | GPQA |
122 occupations are left out on purpose: catch-all codes, codes that O*NET splits, and military jobs. They stay visible as excluded rows with a reason, rather than being scored quietly.
The reasons are A catch-all codes, B codes O*NET splits into others, and C military jobs. Filling the gaps from similar occupations was tested and is not used.